First selection since Thursday’s disappointing runner, Bravais, who showed nothing of the promise I was hoping for and on that evidence he is one to put a line through entirely.
That said, when I make that good a case for one and they show up like that, the run is often too bad to be true. On stable debut that is somewhat understandable, but can only be a watching brief at best next time.
Quiet few days for me on the betting front, as I’ve been doing a lot on the backend of the blog and the Profit & Loss spreadsheet, which was a highlight to previous readers and with the changes made to it, should be even more so going forward.
It’s really coming together and will prove an almighty useful tool in a few months time when it starts getting fully populated with a lengthy run of recent data.
That said, I’ve still been keeping tabs on results and giving an eye over the replays, and there were a few taken forward into the attheraces.com tracker.
Four put in the Tracker…
Realta Liath – 13:15 Cheltenham – 3rd of 15 (10/1), Party Vibes (btn ¾ length) – Big run 2TO over fences. Showed great attitude to rally for 3rd. Rallied and then rallied again – A great trait.
Sock It To Me – 14:50 Fairyhouse – 5th of 20 (25/1), Run For Cover (btn 21 lengths) – Solid Hcap debut. Race stolen from front but plugged on + only to make inroads from off the pace. Basement opening mark exploitable.
They Call Me Hugo – 15:00 Cheltenham – 2nd of 7 (6/1), Carlenrig (btn shd) – Looks classy. Motored through line having not had easiest run-in. Looked best horse in race by some margin.
Inappropriate – 15:05 Newcastle – 2nd of 12 (25/1), Without Compromise (btn 6 lengths) – Huge eyecatcher. Couldn’t get a run and only to make any ground from rear once did. Winner on Flat and over hurdles, three solid runs on AW.
14:00 Southwell
Rosie Baloo 9/1 – 1pt E/W (2pts)
Only the 2nd of the yards runners to win first time up in a Bumper since 2014, with the other being her half-sister Betty Baloo, who also won a Southwell Mares’ Bumper at 25/1 in April ’21. Rosie was no such price, sent off at 7/2, suggesting there was confidence about what they had.
She caught the eye again at the beginning of November, when running a huge race against the boys on her debut over hurdles, finishing 3rd of 11 behind the very useful Out Of The Woods.
She was in the process of showing a fantastic attitude in the run-in to the last, digging deep to try and keep upsides the winner, but she made a bad lunge at the last which cost her momentum and the runner-up spot.
Back against her own sex, she is a great price here against a field which looks devoid of depth. I rarely play prices near 10/1 Each-Way, but this looked too good not to hedge bets as, providing a safe round, I just can’t see three of these being better than her.
The odds-on jolly, Strong Run, is priced on account of the yard and their record in these, rather than any bombproof evidence. A decent yardstick but no odds-on shot for me.
Other Notes
I was very close to having a swing at Banjaxed (13:50 Navan, 18/1), as this looks a handicap seriously lacking in depth, but I had too many question marks in the end for the price to lure me in.
Splashing Out and Battle Of Ridgeway could be anything and the Willie Mullins representative, May Call You Back, who started running over fences from Closutton from a mark of just 77 (surely a record low for them), has won all three starts for the stable at distances of or around two miles.
All the best today.
What if the price has shortened by the time I get to it?
Judge it bet by bet. The cleaner the case in the prose, the more decay I'll tolerate. Rule of thumb is about two-thirds of the advised price — 14/1 down to 10/1 is still in, 9/1 down to 6/1 still fine, anything below that is marginal.
Worth knowing: short prices often drift back out as the off approaches, especially on outsiders. Keep checking in the last 20 minutes — you may get back to the advised price or close to it. And always bet with bookmakers offering Best Odds Guaranteed so you're covered if the SP comes back bigger.
Why are some bets win-only and others each-way?
Three things decide it: confidence, race shape, and the betting market.
If I think a horse has an outstanding win chance, I'll back it win-only to maximise the return — even at a bigger price, where each-way would normally be the safer call. If the win case is more speculative but the place case is strong, each-way carries the bet.
Concrete example: Almanack at Kempton, 2 July 2014. Advised at 22/1 win-only in the morning. The price shortened to 16/1 SP and he won by a short head on the line. Win-only on a confident shout at a generous price is where the real returns come from — when the case is right, you back it to win, not to hedge.
What happens if my horse is a non-runner?
If a horse is declared a non-runner before the race, your stake is returned in full on win or each-way singles.
If it's part of a multiple (accumulator, lucky-15, etc), the bet runs on without that leg and the remaining legs are recalculated. For ante-post bets the rules differ — usually no refund unless the bookmaker is offering NRNB ("Non-Runner No Bet") on the race. Full breakdown here.
Why no advised bet some days?
Because there isn't one. The cards don't always offer value, and the worst thing a tipster can do is force a selection just to fill a slot.
A "No Bet" day is the system working — it's the same discipline that produces the winners on the days the bets are right. Better to sit out a card cleanly than to bleed the bank on filler. The best days are usually the ones I've been patient before.
New to this? Read up on: Win-Only Betting · Handicap Races · Ante-Post Betting
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