Continuing a few days without a betting interest, having grown pig sick of being utterly unable to find a runner able to piece two consecutive solid runs together. Did anyone catch Jack Channon’s 2TO runner at Lingfield yesterday? Lady Blitzle, pumped 25 lengths on debut, ran 2nd beaten 2¼ lengths at 200/1. I kid you not, there is not a better angle in existence of sports betting. Death, Taxes and Jack Channon runners improving fifty-fold for their debut.
I had me a wee look there today, but absolutely nothing jumping out and screaming for a bet. The list is below, for anyone who wants a look. The Ralph Beckett filly at Chepstow probably the closest I got, purely on account of his record at the track, or Henry Callan in the Amatuer riders, just because he so often wins and his mount has tumbled down the weights like a sack of sand off of a cliff. Deservedly so though, on form. Emotional Hedging is another Bayside Boy progeny, for Gavin Cromwell – Not reknowned for Maiden winners but did run 2nd on debut.
Diamond Bay (3/1, Lingfield 14:30), Happy Enough (22/1, Chepstow 14:45), Emotional Hedging (17/2, Roscommon 18:15), Andaman Fifty (13/2, Roscommon 18:45) and Summer Island (6/1, Roscommon 19:15).
Best of luck to all getting involved today.
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Visit the Shop →What if the price has shortened by the time I get to it?
Judge it bet by bet. The cleaner the case in the prose, the more decay I'll tolerate. Rule of thumb is about two-thirds of the advised price — 14/1 down to 10/1 is still in, 9/1 down to 6/1 still fine, anything below that is marginal.
Worth knowing: short prices often drift back out as the off approaches, especially on outsiders. Keep checking in the last 20 minutes — you may get back to the advised price or close to it. And always bet with bookmakers offering Best Odds Guaranteed so you're covered if the SP comes back bigger.
Why are some bets win-only and others each-way?
Three things decide it: confidence, race shape, and the betting market.
If I think a horse has an outstanding win chance, I'll back it win-only to maximise the return — even at a bigger price, where each-way would normally be the safer call. If the win case is more speculative but the place case is strong, each-way carries the bet.
Concrete example: Almanack at Kempton, 2 July 2014. Advised at 22/1 win-only in the morning. The price shortened to 16/1 SP and he won by a short head on the line. Win-only on a confident shout at a generous price is where the real returns come from — when the case is right, you back it to win, not to hedge.
What happens if my horse is a non-runner?
If a horse is declared a non-runner before the race, your stake is returned in full on win or each-way singles.
If it's part of a multiple (accumulator, lucky-15, etc), the bet runs on without that leg and the remaining legs are recalculated. For ante-post bets the rules differ — usually no refund unless the bookmaker is offering NRNB ("Non-Runner No Bet") on the race. Full breakdown here.
Why no advised bet some days?
Because there isn't one. The cards don't always offer value, and the worst thing a tipster can do is force a selection just to fill a slot.
A "No Bet" day is the system working — it's the same discipline that produces the winners on the days the bets are right. Better to sit out a card cleanly than to bleed the bank on filler. The best days are usually the ones I've been patient before.
New to this? Read up on: Betting Odds · Non-Runner Rules · Each-Way Betting
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