Handicaps just are not coming off for us, for love nor money. The Newbury card has three successive Maidens on the card today, and there are two methods which have been almost bombproof for us, so I’m betting across the three for one to come off for a positive end. At the turn of July, I spotted after how many of the returns were coming from the 1pt Minimum Bets, so I consciously opted to be harder on what a 1pt was, and have played very few since and played nearly all at 2pt level stakes. That, unfortunately, has coincided with my most brutal drop in form, ever. Today, for I think the first time since, I’m playing a 1pt Minimum. If this wins, I’ll need more than one sick bag.
The one bet yesterday ran a cracker, but only after stumbling out of the stalls and all but ending any realistic chance. You make your own luck, they say, but I’m feeling like I’m all out of ingredients. To be fair, he looked like he wanted a bit further if anything, but he certainly looked a capable candidate with how he charged down the home straight following the turn in, and I think I’d fancy giving him another chance if the price sits right.
Slowly into stride, towards rear throughout
Prominent, weakened inside final furlong
In rear towards near side, took keen hold early, weakened 2f out
The opening and latter bets are two Owen Burrows newcomers. Since the turn of 2023, his record with debutants on the flat has been nothing short of remarkable, with his newcomers scoring fifteen times from fifty runners, for a 30% strike and a +53.76pt profit to level stakes. What’s more, is the A/E (Actual vs Expected) reading 1.71, which shows they are being vastly underbet. The first up is Chevere, a Havana Grey colt whose mid-ability half-brother won on debut for Roger Varian. Havana Grey boys can go well enough first time up and they do well enough at Newbury to suggest he can ready this one to outrun 10/1. The latter is the more interesting, with Circlet, a Zoustar filly whose full brother, Jarraaf, Owen Burrows trained to win on debut at 22/1, and her full sister also won on debut for Harry Eustace at 12/1.
The other chanced is a Jack Channon 2TO, with Bungle Inthejungle colt Uncle Zello as the 40/1 outsider of the nine. Six of Channon’s last fourteen 2TOs who have gone off over 20/1 in the betting have hit the frame, including fellow Bungle Inthejungle progeny Lady Blitzle, who ran 2nd at Lingfield earlier this month at 200/1, having been pumped 25 lengths on debut. Potentially interesting fact, the yard won with her dam, Neola, 2TO back in 2017 when Jack’s father Mick was still at the helm.
Night Mission (15/8, Wolverhampton 15:00), Big Snoopy (33/1, Kempton 18:51) and Amrum (13/2, Kempton 20:51).
Best of luck to all getting involved today.
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Get your Ledger£29.99 a year · cancel any timeWhat if the price has shortened by the time I get to it?
Judge it bet by bet. The cleaner the case in the prose, the more decay I'll tolerate. Rule of thumb is about two-thirds of the advised price — 14/1 down to 10/1 is still in, 9/1 down to 6/1 still fine, anything below that is marginal.
Worth knowing: short prices often drift back out as the off approaches, especially on outsiders. Keep checking in the last 20 minutes — you may get back to the advised price or close to it. And always bet with bookmakers offering Best Odds Guaranteed so you're covered if the SP comes back bigger.
Why are some bets win-only and others each-way?
Three things decide it: confidence, race shape, and the betting market.
If I think a horse has an outstanding win chance, I'll back it win-only to maximise the return — even at a bigger price, where each-way would normally be the safer call. If the win case is more speculative but the place case is strong, each-way carries the bet.
Concrete example: Almanack at Kempton, 2 July 2014. Advised at 22/1 win-only in the morning. The price shortened to 16/1 SP and he won by a short head on the line. Win-only on a confident shout at a generous price is where the real returns come from — when the case is right, you back it to win, not to hedge.
What happens if my horse is a non-runner?
If a horse is declared a non-runner before the race, your stake is returned in full on win or each-way singles.
If it's part of a multiple (accumulator, lucky-15, etc), the bet runs on without that leg and the remaining legs are recalculated. For ante-post bets the rules differ — usually no refund unless the bookmaker is offering NRNB ("Non-Runner No Bet") on the race. Full breakdown here.
Why no advised bet some days?
Because there isn't one. The cards don't always offer value, and the worst thing a tipster can do is force a selection just to fill a slot.
A "No Bet" day is the system working — it's the same discipline that produces the winners on the days the bets are right. Better to sit out a card cleanly than to bleed the bank on filler. The best days are usually the ones I've been patient before.
New to this? Read up on: Pace Bias · Each-Way Betting · Win-Only Betting
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