Yesterday’s post was a profitable one, but without a big dose of lady luck, it would’ve been a comedy of errors.
We had Wade Out, who appeared to absolutely hate the track at Windsor, running no sort of race, Thats About Right at Thurles, who hated the ground, and Miss Cynthia at Fakenham, who bumped into one far better handicapped than she was. Thankfully for us, that rival was Princess Keri, who was running away with it before she unseated Ned Fox on the run-in to leave our mare to finish a fortunate winner.
Meanwhile, the also-ran’s from the ‘Notes’ section ran blinders – Lisbane Park ran a gallant third, looking a really nice type and will only improve over further, Go To War relished going back over hurdles on a lenient mark and scooted up at 20/1 and then, just to really rub it in, Neo King finished like a train to land the Stayers’ Chase at 16/1.
Neo King was the one I really booted myself about, as I’m ordinarily all over those who get hikes by the handicapper in defeat, especially so with 5lb rises like that. That is as big a clue as the handicapper will ever give.
Today’s racing…
A far quieter day of it after a busy weekend, but a few nice betting opportunities one hopes. One goes who I’ve been waiting a while for, who has been given some desperately poor rides under a vastly inexperienced 10lb claimer, who now finally gets a decent steer aboard.
Not before one goes at Kempton in a really poor 0-55, who could and probably should make a mockery of them at a huge price. I’ve been playing the game long enough to know these low-grade handicaps rarely end up like that, but it does represent one of the best value bets I’ve found in a good while.
Conquest Of Power 25/1 | 1pt EW
13:38 Kempton
13:38 KemptonT: Mark Usher
J: Paddy Bradley
Result: unplaced – 6/8 -2pt
In rear, headway 2f out, kept on inside final furlong, never dangerous (SP 18/1)
Whistle Stop Tour 16/1 | 1pt EW
13:50 Lingfield
13:50 LingfieldT: Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore
J: Jack Tudor
Result: unplaced – 5/14 -2pt
Midfield, weakened before 3 out (SP 22/1)
The vastly overpriced bet in a pitiful weak race is Conquest Of Power, who is fairly well tried in such races and has a very respectable record in such.
His record in Class 6 AW Hcaps reads nineteen runs, four wins and a further six places, with only three of those coming off of a mark this low (50), which resulted in a win and a second, beaten just a head and a second beaten two lengths.
Over the 6f trip, which he goes in today, he has a win and three places, from seven. Paddy Bradley takes the ride, who has won on him once and placed in another, from four rides on him, which bodes well.
In a truly rank race, I fancy to get a fair run for our money at well over the odds for all his evidence, though he can put a stinker in when not on song.
Then up goes Whistle Stop Tour, who I’ve mentioned on a few occasions as one I’ve been waiting with to bet. He screamed at me as a winner in waiting when running second to Nab Wood at Ayr last November, where he really should’ve won and somehow found himself beaten 1¼ lengths. That was entirely down to a terrible ride by the 10lb claimer Greg Walkingshaw.
I waited patiently for another entry over hurdles, noticing the handicapper gave him a 2lb rise for that runner-up run, which says a lot in itself, but was mindblown to see he’d been entered again under the same rider, back at Ayr again. It was no shock to me he again got him soundly beaten, running third of nine.
They now make the long trip down to Lingfield for this, and finally get a legitimate rider on board with Jack Tudor taking the ride. Not the most sought after rider, but a capable one all the same and not one I’m in any way put off by.
I really fancy this one and the fact they make the long trip for it suggests they do, too.
Best of luck with your punting today,
What happens if my horse is a non-runner?
If a horse is declared a non-runner before the race, your stake is returned in full on win or each-way singles.
If it's part of a multiple (accumulator, lucky-15, etc), the bet runs on without that leg and the remaining legs are recalculated. For ante-post bets the rules differ — usually no refund unless the bookmaker is offering NRNB ("Non-Runner No Bet") on the race. Full breakdown here.
Why no advised bet some days?
Because there isn't one. The cards don't always offer value, and the worst thing a tipster can do is force a selection just to fill a slot.
A "No Bet" day is the system working — it's the same discipline that produces the winners on the days the bets are right. Better to sit out a card cleanly than to bleed the bank on filler. The best days are usually the ones I've been patient before.
What do the stake points mean?
Stakes are sized in points, not pounds — that way the same plan works on any size of bankroll.
The Daily Dial uses a simple scale: 1pt is the minimum bet (or 0.5pt each-way), 2pt is a standard bet (or 1pt each-way), and 5pt is the maximum on the strongest fancies (or 2.5pt each-way). The whole thing runs off a 100pt bankroll, so a £100 bank means a point is £1 and a 2pt bet is £2; a £1,000 bank means a point is £10 and a 2pt bet is £20. Scale to whatever feels comfortable.
What's a sensible bankroll?
Whatever you can genuinely afford to lose, full stop. Don't play with rent money. Don't chase last week.
For new starters, a sensible starting point is a £100 bank at £1 per point. From there, scale the unit up by 0.5pt for every 50% the bankroll grows — £150 bank → £1.50/pt, £200 → £2/pt, £250 → £2.50/pt, and so on. The inverse — cutting the unit when the bank drops — is good practice but personal preference; I don't do it myself but it's sound advice for most.
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