Three each-way bets from the Doncaster Grimthorpe meeting today, which should be a cracking day’s racing. All three go with very sound chances from winnable marks in races that should be ideally suited.
Doncaster’s course is one which really tests the jumping of a horse, specifically over fences in the chases. That is only enhanced further over the shorter trips where they can really go at a good early pace. All three of today’s selections are sound jumpers who should relish this, whilst putting their competition under pressure.
Hercule Du Seuil @ 14/1
Hercule Du Seuil @ 14/11pt Each-Way | Doncaster 13:55
T: Neil Mulholland | J: Richie McLernon
King Turgeon @ 14/1
King Turgeon @ 14/11pt Each-Way | Doncaster 14:30
T: David Pipe | J: Jack Tudor
Intosomethinggood @ 10/1
Intosomethinggood @ 10/11pt Each-Way | Doncaster 16:15
T: Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies | J: Tom Bellamy
The first up is Hercule Du Seuil, who is a very recent mover from Willie Mullins’ Clostutton stables to Neil Mulholland’s Conkwell Lodge. It’s probably too early in the day to expect any radical changes, but on only his second start in handicap company, I couldn’t not chance a return to form. He is undoubtedly the class horse in the race, and any return to form will make him a live chance.
He loves to make the running and there is very little guaranteed pace in the race. With the track suited to early prominent positions and his ability to get into a real rhythm with his jumping, he could really get these under the pump early doors and make a bid to steal it from the front.
Then goes King Turgeon in the Grimthorpe Chase, which looks a really interesting renewal and, to be honest, there were a few in here I could’ve chanced. However, I kept coming back round to David Pipe’s charge, who goes off the same mark he slapped up off at Cheltenham a little over a year ago.
His reappearance run at Aintree last November was a sound round over a shorter-than-ideal trip, and his next run was also adequate enough until making a mistake. However, for finishing out of the frame in both runs this term, he has been dropped a generous 4lbs by the handicapper, which I think puts him on a plum mark for this.
He had an entry in the Great Yorkshire Chase here last month, where they also had Deep Cave, who Jack Tudor had ridden to win on the last three occasions, but he had opted to take the ride on King Turgeon until he was made a non-runner. That looked a noteworthy decision.
Lastly goes Intosomethinggood, who is a firm second-string based on both price and the jockey bookings, with Sam Twiston-Davies taking the ride on Big Ticket. However, I think Tom Bellamy can have a live chance with him based on his two-length fourth behind Carlenrig, They Call Me Hugo and Conman John in the Bristol Novices’ Hurdle, which is as good a piece of form as any in here for me.
The ground went for him when last out, here at Doncaster, so I’ll forgive him that completely. Provided Doncaster doesn’t get too much rain, he’ll have a live chance and should be bang there.
Other Notes…
The All-Weather today is a horrible, trappy card at Lingfield and Southwell isn’t much better. These make for terrible betting races and, unless you can find something at considerable value, I believe these are best left alone.
Nedia (19:00 Southwell, 20/1) is an Irish recruit who has her first run for Ian Williams and looks on a workable mark. The closest I came to a bet anywhere else. However, George Downing taking the ride — who has a strike rate on the AW of just 1.79% (1/51 over the last twelve months) — was enough to put me off and make it a watching brief. The fact Ed Greatrex opts for Tribal Wisdom for the yard in the same race might be a clue in itself anyway.
You can view my full, transparent results record here, including every Daily Dial selection logged and tracked.
Best of luck with your punting today,
Why no advised bet some days?
Because there isn't one. The cards don't always offer value, and the worst thing a tipster can do is force a selection just to fill a slot.
A "No Bet" day is the system working — it's the same discipline that produces the winners on the days the bets are right. Better to sit out a card cleanly than to bleed the bank on filler. The best days are usually the ones I've been patient before.
What do the stake points mean?
Stakes are sized in points, not pounds — that way the same plan works on any size of bankroll.
The Daily Dial uses a simple scale: 1pt is the minimum bet (or 0.5pt each-way), 2pt is a standard bet (or 1pt each-way), and 5pt is the maximum on the strongest fancies (or 2.5pt each-way). The whole thing runs off a 100pt bankroll, so a £100 bank means a point is £1 and a 2pt bet is £2; a £1,000 bank means a point is £10 and a 2pt bet is £20. Scale to whatever feels comfortable.
What's a sensible bankroll?
Whatever you can genuinely afford to lose, full stop. Don't play with rent money. Don't chase last week.
For new starters, a sensible starting point is a £100 bank at £1 per point. From there, scale the unit up by 0.5pt for every 50% the bankroll grows — £150 bank → £1.50/pt, £200 → £2/pt, £250 → £2.50/pt, and so on. The inverse — cutting the unit when the bank drops — is good practice but personal preference; I don't do it myself but it's sound advice for most.
What does "each-way" mean?
An each-way bet is two bets in one — a Win bet and a Place bet, each for the same stake. So 1pt each-way means 1pt to win plus 1pt to place: 2pt total out of the bank.
The Place part pays out at a fraction of the win odds (usually 1/4 or 1/5) if the horse finishes in the places — typically the first 3 or 4 depending on the race. Each-way is the right call when the price is generous enough that the place return alone covers the stake. Full guide here.
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