Champion Day. Finally Day One of the Cheltenham Festival is upon us. I’m heading to Prestbury Park bright and early, so a brief post with a full set of selections across every race, with advised stakes how I’m playing the races. A treble across three shorter selections and then five solid Each-Way bets at double-figures.
Handstands @ 14/1
1pt Each-Way | Cheltenham 15:20 – Ultima Handicap Chase
O’Moore Park @ 18/1
1pt Each-Way | Cheltenham 16:40 – Plate Handicap Chase
Holloway Queen @ 18/1
1pt Each-Way | Cheltenham 17:20 – National Hunt Challenge Cup
13:20 – Supreme Novices’ Hurdle – Talk The Talk 9/2
Fairyhouse Royal Bond in November a decent yardstick to this (Kocktail Brut/Blake). 1st + 2nd later well held by Ballyfad and Talk The Talk in Leopardstown Tatts’ Novice in Feb. Irish: El Cairos/Ballyfad/Talk The Talk. El Cairos jumping has looked debatable and Supreme pace will test that to the max. UK: Old Park Star/Mydaddypaddy… Leaning Irish on this.
14:00 – Arkle Novices’ Chase – Mambonumberfive 33/1 Non-Runner
Take on Romeo Coolio no matter. Mambonumberfive worth a tickle E/W – Done nothing wrong over fences until complete non-starter at Warwick in small field heavy ground. Those can be forgiven. Was only going to go if Ben Pauling felt he was in top form, and this was his toughest entry. Likely a two-horse race, though.
14:40 – Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle – Mustang Du Breuil 11/1
Very much lastminute.com for this, with a late late plan with a big Dovecote run just nudging him into this. The Dovecote form will hold rock solid. So long as this hasn’t come too soon (entry suggests they are happy as Henderson doesn’t take many chances) then a big chance.
15:20 – Ultima Handicap Chase – HANDSTANDS 11/1
Graded horse in a Handicap. Was a serious tout for the Gold Cup. Season hasn’t panned out but that’s why he just gets in here at the top of the handicap.
16:00 – Champion Hurdle – Lossiemouth 7/4
Lossiemouth vs The New Lion – TNL will be mowing up the hill but will he catch her? Mares’ allowance looks to powerful here for me. Lossiemouth.
16:40 – Plate Handicap Chase – O’MOORE PARK 18/1 + No Questions Asked 16/1
Ran 3rd (66/1) behind Caldwell Potter off 140 then followed it up month later back at Cheltenham when 2nd to Riskintheground off same mark. Goes here off 141. Loved his run in 5th behind Favori De Champdou in Leopardstown Paddy Power Chase in December. Handicaper could’ve reacted to that, but hasn’t.
No Questions Asked has been one I’ve wanted to back wherever they went at the festival. Really nicely campaigned into this, love the Viroflay form and think this could be another Shakem Up’arry for Ben Pauling.
17:20 – National Hunt Cup Novices’ Handicap Chase – HOLLOWAY QUEEN 16/1
A mare I’ve followed all winter. She doesn’t do anything quickly but she is relentless, which should really suit Cheltenham. If she is in contention at the foot of the hill, she will be as tough as any up it.
Best of luck with your punting today,
What if the price has shortened by the time I get to it?
Judge it bet by bet. The cleaner the case in the prose, the more decay I'll tolerate. Rule of thumb is about two-thirds of the advised price — 14/1 down to 10/1 is still in, 9/1 down to 6/1 still fine, anything below that is marginal.
Worth knowing: short prices often drift back out as the off approaches, especially on outsiders. Keep checking in the last 20 minutes — you may get back to the advised price or close to it. And always bet with bookmakers offering Best Odds Guaranteed so you're covered if the SP comes back bigger.
Why are some bets win-only and others each-way?
Three things decide it: confidence, race shape, and the betting market.
If I think a horse has an outstanding win chance, I'll back it win-only to maximise the return — even at a bigger price, where each-way would normally be the safer call. If the win case is more speculative but the place case is strong, each-way carries the bet.
Concrete example: Almanack at Kempton, 2 July 2014. Advised at 22/1 win-only in the morning. The price shortened to 16/1 SP and he won by a short head on the line. Win-only on a confident shout at a generous price is where the real returns come from — when the case is right, you back it to win, not to hedge.
What happens if my horse is a non-runner?
If a horse is declared a non-runner before the race, your stake is returned in full on win or each-way singles.
If it's part of a multiple (accumulator, lucky-15, etc), the bet runs on without that leg and the remaining legs are recalculated. For ante-post bets the rules differ — usually no refund unless the bookmaker is offering NRNB ("Non-Runner No Bet") on the race. Full breakdown here.
Why no advised bet some days?
Because there isn't one. The cards don't always offer value, and the worst thing a tipster can do is force a selection just to fill a slot.
A "No Bet" day is the system working — it's the same discipline that produces the winners on the days the bets are right. Better to sit out a card cleanly than to bleed the bank on filler. The best days are usually the ones I've been patient before.
New to this? Read up on: National Hunt Racing · Non-Runner Rules · Pace Bias
Get tomorrow's pick before the off
Every selection posted before the race — the angle, the reasoning, the price. Free, no fluff.
