A weekend away from the betting front and a watching brief to enjoy the Guineas Weekend at Newmarket. These races are not ordinarily the target of my betting and this year was no different. The competitive nature of them, at such an early stage of the season, makes them incredibly hard to gauge. Unless there is really something screaming and shouting at me, these will almost always be ones to watch and enjoy. There were some other decent cards over the weekend with bits to take from it, which we’ll debrief over the course of the week, likely on a Friday roundup.
No selections since Friday’s only bet — Tropical Storm at Goodwood. He ran 3rd of 11, beaten 4 lengths, but I can’t help feeling the race comments gloss over it a bit. “Towards rear but in touch with leaders, some headway on far side of group over 1f out, kept on and went third inside final 110yds”… For me, his head carriage was never looking right and it suggested he wasn’t handling the track well. Looking back on his form, his only previous Goodwood run was an 8th of 9, beaten 3¾ lengths, before he went and won a Listed contest next time out at York. Goodwood is a tricky course for both horses and jockeys, so I think it’s fair to forgive him that, and maybe I should have seen that one coming. There’s every chance he’ll be seen to far better effect next time, similarly to how he found his feet at York previously.
In touch with leaders, headway after 1f, soon raced in second, pressed leader over 3f out, disputed lead when ridden over 1f out, kept on well
Led narrowly, edged left and headed 1f out, no extra final 110yds
Towards rear, brief headway inside final furlong, never dangerous
Awkward start, towards rear, headway on outer 3f out, weakened over 1f ou
Onto the selections, and having watched Jack Channon’s runners continue to impress over the weekend, I’m sticking with the recent theme and keeping the faith with his maidens, two of which he runs in quick succession today. He had West Byfleet run a cracker at a big price in a decent Goodwood Maiden on Saturday — and on debut, another of Channon’s, who goes again today, finished a long way clear of him. Channon also saw Miss Attitude run a belter in the Palace House Stakes at Newmarket, finishing 5th of 14 beaten 5 lengths, despite completely missing the kick.
The first of the Channon pair is DECADE OF TIME, who ran well clear of the aforementioned West Byfleet when the pair made their debut at Newbury last month. West Byfleet ran 14th of 25 albeit with no luck in running, while Decade Of Time ran a huge race to finish 3rd, beaten 2 lengths, at 40/1. Neither was given a hard time whatsoever, which is why so many of these are able to find improvement on their subsequent outings. I wasn’t keen on taking on the Andrew Balding newcomer Turret, with close ties to Hermosa (2019 1,000 Guineas and Irish 1,000 Guineas winner), The United States (multiple Group winner in Australia and the U.S.) and Hydrangea (2017 Matron Stakes and British Champions’ Fillies & Mares winner) — but he’s a non-runner now, one to keep an eye out for another day, and his absence makes this race more attractive for a bet. 2pt Win at 9/4 (generally available).
The other Maiden runner for Channon goes ten minutes or so later, with SARGENT DENNIS at Kempton. This is a far easier race, and although it’s slightly different in that this is the runner’s third tilt at a Maiden, there is every chance he can go one better. The colt was drawn wide last time at Wolverhampton and had to give it some out of the stalls just to get a prominent position, only to end up giving the favourite, Afton Down, a perfect tow into the race and setting it up perfectly to swallow him down the straight. I don’t think there will be one that good in here. 2pt Win at 4/1 (Bet365).
The other two on the day are COME ON OVER and GOREY GOLD, the two rides for Daniel Tudhope today at Beverley. He sits towards the top of the jockey charts on the Beverley Guide and both these rides are interesting in their own right. The former is one who has had very little luck to date since dropping into handicap company. He goes off what looks a fair mark of 71, and as soon as he gets a clear run he looks a certainty to be going mighty close. David O’Meara and Tudhope have a strike rate of 20% at Beverley when teaming up, and I fancy this one to be another notch on that successful rate. 2pt Win at 10/1 (Bet365, Ladbrokes).
The latter, GOREY GOLD, is harder to make a case for on form but looks wildly overpriced and is an interesting traveller for the in-form Jonathan Portman, who last month sent his first runner to Beverley since 2019 — Wondrous Light, who won cosily under none other than Daniel Tudhope. They pair up again today with this handicapper, who goes with two quiet all-weather runs under his belt and last two turf runs at the back end of last season over a furlong shorter, where he was doing his best work late on and only narrowly beaten on both occasions. Off a realistic mark, with the extra furlong to run at, this looks an interesting one to send up to Beverley for Portman, who clearly doesn’t make a habit of it. Add in the fact that Tudhope is booked again, and at a massive each-way price, he’s a decent bet. 1pt Each-Way at 22/1 (Bet365, William Hill, Betfred).
Others to note…
The Bath opener is an Amateur Riders’ race where I again wanted to play the cash machine that is Henry Callan, who rides a 9/2 chance in Pay Attention for Faye Bramley. With his record this looks a bet on the price alone, but with the nature of the track and the horse’s form on similar tracks, I don’t see this being an easy ride. He has been well held at Brighton, Salisbury and Newmarket, all of which share characteristics with Bath, only Bath magnifies them — so I’ve opted to risk letting this one run. He is by far and away the best rider in the race, so he may still drag one over the line here, but I don’t see this being a steering job like we had with No Knee Never a couple of weeks ago.
Best of luck to all getting involved. Be Lucky!
What does "each-way" mean?
An each-way bet is two bets in one — a Win bet and a Place bet, each for the same stake. So 1pt each-way means 1pt to win plus 1pt to place: 2pt total out of the bank.
The Place part pays out at a fraction of the win odds (usually 1/4 or 1/5) if the horse finishes in the places — typically the first 3 or 4 depending on the race. Each-way is the right call when the price is generous enough that the place return alone covers the stake. Full guide here.
How do I follow this bet?
Best route is Oddschecker. It pulls every UK bookmaker's price into one screen so you can grab the top of the market — and crucially it shows the place terms, which vary by firm. One bookmaker might offer 11/1 paying 3 places at 1/4 odds; another might offer the same 11/1 paying 4 places at 1/5. Maximum win return vs hedged each-way return — your call which serves the bet better.
If the price has shortened since I advised it, judge it on the case in the prose. Rule of thumb: I'm generally happy down to about two-thirds of the advised price — 14/1 down to 10/1, 8/1 down to 5/1. Below that it's marginal and probably worth passing. Keep an eye on the price in the last 20 minutes too — short prices often drift back out as the off approaches, especially on outsiders. Bet with bookmakers offering Best Odds Guaranteed and you're covered either way.
What if the price has shortened by the time I get to it?
Judge it bet by bet. The cleaner the case in the prose, the more decay I'll tolerate. Rule of thumb is about two-thirds of the advised price — 14/1 down to 10/1 is still in, 9/1 down to 6/1 still fine, anything below that is marginal.
Worth knowing: short prices often drift back out as the off approaches, especially on outsiders. Keep checking in the last 20 minutes — you may get back to the advised price or close to it. And always bet with bookmakers offering Best Odds Guaranteed so you're covered if the SP comes back bigger.
Why are some bets win-only and others each-way?
Three things decide it: confidence, race shape, and the betting market.
If I think a horse has an outstanding win chance, I'll back it win-only to maximise the return — even at a bigger price, where each-way would normally be the safer call. If the win case is more speculative but the place case is strong, each-way carries the bet.
Concrete example: Almanack at Kempton, 2 July 2014. Advised at 22/1 win-only in the morning. The price shortened to 16/1 SP and he won by a short head on the line. Win-only on a confident shout at a generous price is where the real returns come from — when the case is right, you back it to win, not to hedge.
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