A series of tricky meetings today — trappy handicaps and a plethora of races that just don’t shout as ones to get involved with in the betting. None of it outstanding stuff, but it looks highly competitive throughout. This was a whisker from being a no-bet day.
A quick reflection on yesterday first… with Sale Shark. Three systems flagged the bet, the two previous debutants the yard had from the dam had both won, and he made it three from three — in style. As easy a winner as we’ll get, and he looks destined for Royal Ascot. Those Bayside Boy progeny continue to impress, and there’s no way they keep being underbet like this: the 13/8 SP, in from the 3/1 available earlier in the day, only bolsters the point. These won’t go under the radar any longer.
NR
One I’ve watched through the winter since seeing FANTASY MASTER switch from Darryll Holland to Robert Cowell, who does so well with these sprinters, and moved home with a very attractive handicap mark of just 69.
I was frustrated to see him win at Chelmsford back in December and thought I might have missed the kick with him — but the handicapper wasn’t harsh, only nudging him 2lb. He’s an older head in a race full of improving 4yo’s who could yet go past him. But he’s off such a lenient mark that I could see him reeling off a succession of wins for the new yard.
He always improves for a run, usually considerably. So on the back of a 156-day break I thought he’d be well held at Ascot on 9th May, but he ran a cracker to finish 1¼ lengths third of 18, only tiring late. Cobwebs blown off, he drops back to a track he’s twice run well at over the minimum trip, which he did from 5lb and 8lb higher than today. Now he goes off an unchanged mark from Ascot with a jockey upgrade in Billy Loughnane. The market’s noticed too: he’d been 15/2 this morning and has been clipped into 6/1 (Bet365), but he still ranks a bet.
Others To Note — plenty I looked at twice today but none jumping out enough at the odds for a bet: Lady Branksome (11/4, Ripon 14:05), Northern Tempest (12/1, Ripon 15:07), Londoner (16/1, Ripon 15:40), Killavia (7/1, Sandown 17:10), Dc Cogent (15/2, Ripon 17:20), Suddenly I See (8/1, Sandown 20:20).
Best of luck to all getting involved. Be Lucky!
What do the stake points mean?
Stakes are sized in points, not pounds — that way the same plan works on any size of bankroll.
The Daily Dial uses a simple scale: 1pt is the minimum bet (or 0.5pt each-way), 2pt is a standard bet (or 1pt each-way), and 5pt is the maximum on the strongest fancies (or 2.5pt each-way). The whole thing runs off a 100pt bankroll, so a £100 bank means a point is £1 and a 2pt bet is £2; a £1,000 bank means a point is £10 and a 2pt bet is £20. Scale to whatever feels comfortable.
What's a sensible bankroll?
Whatever you can genuinely afford to lose, full stop. Don't play with rent money. Don't chase last week.
For new starters, a sensible starting point is a £100 bank at £1 per point. From there, scale the unit up by 0.5pt for every 50% the bankroll grows — £150 bank → £1.50/pt, £200 → £2/pt, £250 → £2.50/pt, and so on. The inverse — cutting the unit when the bank drops — is good practice but personal preference; I don't do it myself but it's sound advice for most.
What does "each-way" mean?
An each-way bet is two bets in one — a Win bet and a Place bet, each for the same stake. So 1pt each-way means 1pt to win plus 1pt to place: 2pt total out of the bank.
The Place part pays out at a fraction of the win odds (usually 1/4 or 1/5) if the horse finishes in the places — typically the first 3 or 4 depending on the race. Each-way is the right call when the price is generous enough that the place return alone covers the stake. Full guide here.
How do I follow this bet?
Best route is Oddschecker. It pulls every UK bookmaker's price into one screen so you can grab the top of the market — and crucially it shows the place terms, which vary by firm. One bookmaker might offer 11/1 paying 3 places at 1/4 odds; another might offer the same 11/1 paying 4 places at 1/5. Maximum win return vs hedged each-way return — your call which serves the bet better.
If the price has shortened since I advised it, judge it on the case in the prose. Rule of thumb: I'm generally happy down to about two-thirds of the advised price — 14/1 down to 10/1, 8/1 down to 5/1. Below that it's marginal and probably worth passing. Keep an eye on the price in the last 20 minutes too — short prices often drift back out as the off approaches, especially on outsiders. Bet with bookmakers offering Best Odds Guaranteed and you're covered either way.
New to this? Read up on: Betting Odds · National Hunt Racing · Non-Runner Rules
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