A very tricky few days of racing recently, with a wealth of cards to dig through, it was a mighty task to find a decent bet amongst it all and I opted to let a few days run. Thankfully so, as the majority of what I’ve been eyeballing have failed to go close, but in these competitive fields it’s no great surprise. Today I’ve chanced one bet, in probably as competitive a race as any recently, but in a race paying five places there are enough boxes ticked at a great price.
I’ve chanced two smaller each-way plays later on the card, half a point each-way apiece. The reasoning’s the same on both — Wootton Bassett’s boys have a smart record at Thirsk, and both there today look potentially well handicapped. Smaller stakes and bigger prices – Both races paying four places.
Always behind
Led early and again over 2f out, headed over 1f out, weakened inside final furlong
Slowly away, in rear, not clear run over 3f out, some late headway
MUKER, and the case begins with the draw. Thirsk’s five-furlong sprint is the most one-sided draw track we cover — high numbers win 41.8% of these races against 24.8% for the low draws, and in a big field like today’s eighteen-runner heat that high-draw edge widens to nearly double (the full breakdown is in the Thirsk Flat guide). Get the draw right here and you’ve a start before the stalls even open. Muker comes out of 12 of 18 — high enough, and on the right side, for the bias to be working with him rather than against.
His course-and-distance form reads 315130. Stripping it back… the two thirds came off marks of 85 and 84, the fifth off 85 — competitive every time he’s run off the mid-80s — and the two wins came off 73 and 82, the latter a class above today’s. He gets in here off 79, below both placed marks, and a few pounds above a winning one.
Alex Jary keeps the ride, and he partnered both of those course-and-distance wins. A 3lb claimer who’s already found the line twice round here is worth a good deal more than the bare booking. Worth also noting Nigel Tinkler’s yard is in fine form too, six winners from their last eighteen runners, and they very nearly added a 50/1 shot to that yesterday when Ronson was nutted in the Beverley Two Year Old Trophy.
It’s well worth forgiving Muker his last run, over today’s C&D, where those held up failed to achieve better than 10th – it was a race that went entirely against him. Today’s race has two confirmed front-runners and a double handful of prominent runners, so there is as good a guarantee of pace as we could get to give him a good tow into the race. Hopefully he can bag a handy position near the rail and get a clear run in the closing stages.
A proven course-and-distance winner, dropped to a mark he’s already beaten, the right man in the plate, drawn high in the kind of big field that sharpens the very bias the bet rests on. 18/1 is far too big. 1pt Each-Way at 18/1 (Bet365).
The latter two are bets based on nothing more than Wootton Bassett boys recording a record at Thirsk of 7/15, with seven different winners from the thirteen colts and geldings to run at the track. Both have question marks and something to prove, but both are on lenient marks should they get competitive and are worth minor punts.
Best of luck to all getting involved. Be Lucky!
How do I follow this bet?
Best route is Oddschecker. It pulls every UK bookmaker's price into one screen so you can grab the top of the market — and crucially it shows the place terms, which vary by firm. One bookmaker might offer 11/1 paying 3 places at 1/4 odds; another might offer the same 11/1 paying 4 places at 1/5. Maximum win return vs hedged each-way return — your call which serves the bet better.
If the price has shortened since I advised it, judge it on the case in the prose. Rule of thumb: I'm generally happy down to about two-thirds of the advised price — 14/1 down to 10/1, 8/1 down to 5/1. Below that it's marginal and probably worth passing. Keep an eye on the price in the last 20 minutes too — short prices often drift back out as the off approaches, especially on outsiders. Bet with bookmakers offering Best Odds Guaranteed and you're covered either way.
What if the price has shortened by the time I get to it?
Judge it bet by bet. The cleaner the case in the prose, the more decay I'll tolerate. Rule of thumb is about two-thirds of the advised price — 14/1 down to 10/1 is still in, 9/1 down to 6/1 still fine, anything below that is marginal.
Worth knowing: short prices often drift back out as the off approaches, especially on outsiders. Keep checking in the last 20 minutes — you may get back to the advised price or close to it. And always bet with bookmakers offering Best Odds Guaranteed so you're covered if the SP comes back bigger.
Why are some bets win-only and others each-way?
Three things decide it: confidence, race shape, and the betting market.
If I think a horse has an outstanding win chance, I'll back it win-only to maximise the return — even at a bigger price, where each-way would normally be the safer call. If the win case is more speculative but the place case is strong, each-way carries the bet.
Concrete example: Almanack at Kempton, 2 July 2014. Advised at 22/1 win-only in the morning. The price shortened to 16/1 SP and he won by a short head on the line. Win-only on a confident shout at a generous price is where the real returns come from — when the case is right, you back it to win, not to hedge.
What happens if my horse is a non-runner?
If a horse is declared a non-runner before the race, your stake is returned in full on win or each-way singles.
If it's part of a multiple (accumulator, lucky-15, etc), the bet runs on without that leg and the remaining legs are recalculated. For ante-post bets the rules differ — usually no refund unless the bookmaker is offering NRNB ("Non-Runner No Bet") on the race. Full breakdown here.
New to this? Read up on: Ante-Post Betting · Best Odds Guaranteed · Betting Odds
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