A decent few evening cards for a bet, so I focused squarely on just Windsor and Lingfield, deciding I couldn’t not go back in on one we were unfortunate to have a blown start on as recently as Saturday. I think the fact they turn him back out, in exactly the same sphere, suggests they know he didn’t have a race that day and fancy him. I’m aware I have results to update, I’ve just been hard pressed trying to address the mailing list – which is now sorted! Subscribe at your leisure at the foot of the post and from now on you will actually receive the emails – Note: Existing subscribers are unaffected.
The two mentioned in the ‘Others to note’ could easily have been bets on another day. The first of them is a new recruit for Mickey Bowen who is a right interesting one to keep tabs on, hailing from a dam who has produced a couple of very handy types, who most notably have all favoured fast ground. This filly has won twice in France on Soft and Heavy and is yet to be seen on anything even resembling Good, let alone fast. If she improves for it, well… She could be anything. The yard are 0/7 on the Flat and likely treating this as a pipe opener, though.
The latter is one for Hugo Palmer who has had a year off, which is the reason I left him alone, but he has bits of form fresh, so I couldn’t entirely rule him out. He was probably a point or two away from a bet, just on account of the race being a touch warm, but every chance he gets an easy lead and, if fit… Could be tough to peg back.
Prominent on far side of group, led over 3f out, headed and weakened over 1f out
Prominent, weakened inside final furlong
First up is a handicap debutant angle for George Scott, who does really well with these and is great at placing them for it. ELMFIELD has run okay for his level in a trio of starts in Maiden and Novice company, whilst just being outclassed, but it sees him enter handicaps off a lowly mark of 57, in a 0-60 with the highest rated just 58. The yard operate at around a 20% win strike and 40% place strike with their handicap debutants, but that win strike climbs to nearly 24% in this basement grade and to 35% for 3yos in open handicaps getting the weight allowance. Liam Wright booked claiming a valuable enough 5lbs, too.
I had the below to say on Saturday, and exactly the same applies, only for being drawn wider in stall 6. However, it doesn’t look likely he’ll have one like A Lott Of Kane, who was going to be the one to force the issue last time out, and in blowing the start, was left alone to dominate and make every yard of it:
“The only bet is in the worst grade of the day, but a bet is a bet. I used to turn my nose up at Classified Stakes, but they are certainly growing legs again. There’s one in here who I think is well ahead of these, and from stall 2 should be able to ping the gates and dominate. ROMAN SPRING is a Caravaggio gelding who ran regularly for three years without winning a race, before getting off the mark at the 29th time of asking last year, and went on to win twice further in 2025, including a Handicap here at Lingfield over 5f last November.”
“Falling now for the first time into a Classified Stakes, where he meets rivals rated far beneath his best and from level weights, he should be able to really turn the screw on these. Joe Leavy rides, who has been excellent here this year, riding 7/24 for a 29% strike, and is very apt at judging the kick off the turn for home here.”
Mia Sunshine (16/1, Windsor 18:41) and Box To Box (12/1, Windsor 19:41).
Best of luck all getting involved today.
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Get your Ledger£29.99 a year · cancel any timeWhat happens if my horse is a non-runner?
If a horse is declared a non-runner before the race, your stake is returned in full on win or each-way singles.
If it's part of a multiple (accumulator, lucky-15, etc), the bet runs on without that leg and the remaining legs are recalculated. For ante-post bets the rules differ — usually no refund unless the bookmaker is offering NRNB ("Non-Runner No Bet") on the race. Full breakdown here.
Why no advised bet some days?
Because there isn't one. The cards don't always offer value, and the worst thing a tipster can do is force a selection just to fill a slot.
A "No Bet" day is the system working — it's the same discipline that produces the winners on the days the bets are right. Better to sit out a card cleanly than to bleed the bank on filler. The best days are usually the ones I've been patient before.
What do the stake points mean?
Stakes are sized in points, not pounds — that way the same plan works on any size of bankroll.
The Daily Dial uses a simple scale: 1pt is the minimum bet (or 0.5pt each-way), 2pt is a standard bet (or 1pt each-way), and 5pt is the maximum on the strongest fancies (or 2.5pt each-way). The whole thing runs off a 100pt bankroll, so a £100 bank means a point is £1 and a 2pt bet is £2; a £1,000 bank means a point is £10 and a 2pt bet is £20. Scale to whatever feels comfortable.
What's a sensible bankroll?
Whatever you can genuinely afford to lose, full stop. Don't play with rent money. Don't chase last week.
For new starters, a sensible starting point is a £100 bank at £1 per point. From there, scale the unit up by 0.5pt for every 50% the bankroll grows — £150 bank → £1.50/pt, £200 → £2/pt, £250 → £2.50/pt, and so on. The inverse — cutting the unit when the bank drops — is good practice but personal preference; I don't do it myself but it's sound advice for most.
New to this? Read up on: Each-Way Betting · Handicap Races · Ante-Post Betting
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