A short and sharp Daily Dial today, with a single bet on the day following a trainer in blistering form, who only has one runner on the day. A handicap debutant in a race that looks lacking in depth at this grade, hopefully it’s another good bit of placement.
Yesterday’s review…
Absolute sh*te. Move on.
Azahara Palace @ 5/1
Azahara Palace @ 5/12pt Win | Carlisle 15:35
T: Adrian Keatley | J: Brian Hughes
Result: Placed – 2/14 -2pts | Midfield on inner, headway before 2 out, chased clear leader final 110yds, kept on (SP 11/1)
A yard who have won with six of their last eleven National Hunt runners, or eight of their last eleven runners when including the All Weather, albeit record breaking Aisling Oscar has made up for a chunk of them.
Azahara Palace makes handicap bow over hurdles and with a 2nd place and a win from her three starts over them, it’s no surprise she has been given an opening mark of 110. It’s not a mark that makes her look a penalty kick by any means.
However, the race looks to be seriously lacking in any depth for this grade, with 25/1 shot Russian Virtue (who hasn’t won since 2023), and 9/1 chance Two Auld Pals (suffers the steer of Greg Walkingshaw), the only two in the race who have won more than once at this level.
There are a few others in there who could be anything and go unexposed, but with a yard in as rattling form as this, I think it’s worth taking a shot at 5/1 that they have picked another perfect race.
They don’t send many to Carlisle, which looked a clue in itself. Since the turn of 2024, they’ve only sent seven runners here, with one winner and only two of the seven finishing out of the frame. Suggests they go trying!
Best of luck with your punting today,
What happens if my horse is a non-runner?
If a horse is declared a non-runner before the race, your stake is returned in full on win or each-way singles.
If it's part of a multiple (accumulator, lucky-15, etc), the bet runs on without that leg and the remaining legs are recalculated. For ante-post bets the rules differ — usually no refund unless the bookmaker is offering NRNB ("Non-Runner No Bet") on the race. Full breakdown here.
Why no advised bet some days?
Because there isn't one. The cards don't always offer value, and the worst thing a tipster can do is force a selection just to fill a slot.
A "No Bet" day is the system working — it's the same discipline that produces the winners on the days the bets are right. Better to sit out a card cleanly than to bleed the bank on filler. The best days are usually the ones I've been patient before.
What do the stake points mean?
Stakes are sized in points, not pounds — that way the same plan works on any size of bankroll.
The Daily Dial uses a simple scale: 1pt is the minimum bet (or 0.5pt each-way), 2pt is a standard bet (or 1pt each-way), and 5pt is the maximum on the strongest fancies (or 2.5pt each-way). The whole thing runs off a 100pt bankroll, so a £100 bank means a point is £1 and a 2pt bet is £2; a £1,000 bank means a point is £10 and a 2pt bet is £20. Scale to whatever feels comfortable.
What's a sensible bankroll?
Whatever you can genuinely afford to lose, full stop. Don't play with rent money. Don't chase last week.
For new starters, a sensible starting point is a £100 bank at £1 per point. From there, scale the unit up by 0.5pt for every 50% the bankroll grows — £150 bank → £1.50/pt, £200 → £2/pt, £250 → £2.50/pt, and so on. The inverse — cutting the unit when the bank drops — is good practice but personal preference; I don't do it myself but it's sound advice for most.
New to this? Read up on: Ante-Post Betting · National Hunt Racing · Non-Runner Rules
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