A bumper day of racing, with every code covered across eight cards. The pick of it is without doubt the Flat action though, and that is where all three bets on the day come from, with two at Musselburgh north of the border and one over the sea from Cork. All three are strong enough fancies for full 2pt bets, so let’s hope we can shake this poor run of things.
Took keen hold, towards rear, headway from over 1f out, no extra inside final 110yds
In rear, squeezed out soon after start, soon pushed along, switched right and kept on inside final furlong, never on terms (jockey said gelding suffered interference shortly after the start)
Held up in midfield, headway from 3f out, ridden and went second over 1f out, ran on well to lead inside final 110yds
Reduced visibility, midfield, challenging under 2f out, kept on inside final furlong
First up is Persuasion, who is a runner from Tracker having shown up well enough to be of interest in recent weeks when seen blowing the cobwebs away on the All-Weather. An out and out Flat performer, the nine-year-old now goes off a handy looking mark. He has been on my radar since last summer, where I just had him weighted out of things, but now he is really shouting as a well handicapped type. A C&D winner, off 1lb higher, he can put a huge run in here.
Then goes Tropical Storm, a four-year-old who I expect to outgrow handicaps well before the end of this season. He was pitched in very deep this time last year, when he was sent for the Group 3 Palace House Stakes at Newmarket as the only three-year-old in the race, where he wasn’t disgraced. He followed that up with a Listed win at York and was again pitched in deep water for the King Charles III Stakes at Royal Ascot, where he was 17th of 20 beaten 7¾ lengths. Three races since he has pitched into handicaps, but all three have been near write-offs — one due to a bad start and then two hard luck stories. Off a mark of 97 now, I genuinely think he could be one of the best handicapped horses in training, should he put it all together.
Moody is interesting on jockey bookings here, with Paddy Twomey sending two for a race they won last year. The 2fav Elana Osario, who is 0/6 under Billy Lee and 3/3 under Colin Keane, has Billy Lee jocked up — with Keane taking the ride on the yard’s new import from Andre Fabre, Moody – Preferably a choice. A maiden winner in France with form behind a Group 3 winner on her only other start, she is an interesting one without even taking into account the riders.
Talking of well handicapped horses, how Perisher has been given an opening mark of 80 is beyond me. This looks hugely lenient, with his mile form littered with Group 3, Group 2 and even Group 1 performers both in front and behind him. Making his handicap bow here, I think he could make an absolute mockery of that mark and ranks as the strongest bet of the day. Had I been more on the boil with the Irish form, I’d have been going Max Bet here.
Best of luck with your punting today,
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Visit the Shop →Why are some bets win-only and others each-way?
Three things decide it: confidence, race shape, and the betting market.
If I think a horse has an outstanding win chance, I'll back it win-only to maximise the return — even at a bigger price, where each-way would normally be the safer call. If the win case is more speculative but the place case is strong, each-way carries the bet.
Concrete example: Almanack at Kempton, 2 July 2014. Advised at 22/1 win-only in the morning. The price shortened to 16/1 SP and he won by a short head on the line. Win-only on a confident shout at a generous price is where the real returns come from — when the case is right, you back it to win, not to hedge.
What happens if my horse is a non-runner?
If a horse is declared a non-runner before the race, your stake is returned in full on win or each-way singles.
If it's part of a multiple (accumulator, lucky-15, etc), the bet runs on without that leg and the remaining legs are recalculated. For ante-post bets the rules differ — usually no refund unless the bookmaker is offering NRNB ("Non-Runner No Bet") on the race. Full breakdown here.
Why no advised bet some days?
Because there isn't one. The cards don't always offer value, and the worst thing a tipster can do is force a selection just to fill a slot.
A "No Bet" day is the system working — it's the same discipline that produces the winners on the days the bets are right. Better to sit out a card cleanly than to bleed the bank on filler. The best days are usually the ones I've been patient before.
What do the stake points mean?
Stakes are sized in points, not pounds — that way the same plan works on any size of bankroll.
The Daily Dial uses a simple scale: 1pt is the minimum bet (or 0.5pt each-way), 2pt is a standard bet (or 1pt each-way), and 5pt is the maximum on the strongest fancies (or 2.5pt each-way). The whole thing runs off a 100pt bankroll, so a £100 bank means a point is £1 and a 2pt bet is £2; a £1,000 bank means a point is £10 and a 2pt bet is £20. Scale to whatever feels comfortable.
New to this? Read up on: Turf vs All-Weather · Each-Way Betting · Win-Only Betting
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