A few decent cards today but, blimey, they look some tough betting heats. Two runners from the Tracker, and it’s the one we chanced last time who I’ve just about justified the price about to chance a bet on again. Being honest, I expected a bigger price. I’ve said it again and again — these betting markets are getting tougher and tougher to crack.
Yesterday’s only selection was disappointing, with Upepo running 7th of 8 beaten 3¾ lengths. He never really got going or looked remotely like challenging, which left a fair bit of head-scratching in the aftermath — he looked absolute prime material to be going bang close.
Towards rear but in touch with leaders, some headway on far side of group over 1f out, kept on and went third inside final 110yds
I offered up TROPICAL STORM at the beginning of April and suggested he could be one of the best handicapped horses in training this season. I’m prepared to give him another tilt at that having hopefully blown the cobwebs off him now. That last run was fresh off the back of a 200-odd day lay-off, during which he was gelded, and despite suffering some trouble at the start he still looked a bit ring rusty and in need of it.
He followed a similar trajectory last season — ran 6th of 11 beaten 6½ lengths off a similar lay-off, then showed bags of improvement to come out a few weeks later and land a nice Listed event at York. This race is considerably weaker than either of those, and I just can’t see how he doesn’t rattle at least one handicap win before moving back into more valuable pots.
The other worth a look at today is My Love Is King, who goes at Newmarket (14:20, 3/1) and is the first to run from the race where we chanced Joulany on 17th April. That race looked a very warm event, so I’d expect the principals from that day to put some good context around the form, starting here. It’s a solid little race and I’d need a bit of context to the form to be thinking about playing at the price — but one well worth casting eyes over.
Best of luck to all getting involved. Be Lucky!
How do I follow this bet?
Best route is Oddschecker. It pulls every UK bookmaker's price into one screen so you can grab the top of the market — and crucially it shows the place terms, which vary by firm. One bookmaker might offer 11/1 paying 3 places at 1/4 odds; another might offer the same 11/1 paying 4 places at 1/5. Maximum win return vs hedged each-way return — your call which serves the bet better.
If the price has shortened since I advised it, judge it on the case in the prose. Rule of thumb: I'm generally happy down to about two-thirds of the advised price — 14/1 down to 10/1, 8/1 down to 5/1. Below that it's marginal and probably worth passing. Keep an eye on the price in the last 20 minutes too — short prices often drift back out as the off approaches, especially on outsiders. Bet with bookmakers offering Best Odds Guaranteed and you're covered either way.
What if the price has shortened by the time I get to it?
Judge it bet by bet. The cleaner the case in the prose, the more decay I'll tolerate. Rule of thumb is about two-thirds of the advised price — 14/1 down to 10/1 is still in, 9/1 down to 6/1 still fine, anything below that is marginal.
Worth knowing: short prices often drift back out as the off approaches, especially on outsiders. Keep checking in the last 20 minutes — you may get back to the advised price or close to it. And always bet with bookmakers offering Best Odds Guaranteed so you're covered if the SP comes back bigger.
Why are some bets win-only and others each-way?
Three things decide it: confidence, race shape, and the betting market.
If I think a horse has an outstanding win chance, I'll back it win-only to maximise the return — even at a bigger price, where each-way would normally be the safer call. If the win case is more speculative but the place case is strong, each-way carries the bet.
Concrete example: Almanack at Kempton, 2 July 2014. Advised at 22/1 win-only in the morning. The price shortened to 16/1 SP and he won by a short head on the line. Win-only on a confident shout at a generous price is where the real returns come from — when the case is right, you back it to win, not to hedge.
What happens if my horse is a non-runner?
If a horse is declared a non-runner before the race, your stake is returned in full on win or each-way singles.
If it's part of a multiple (accumulator, lucky-15, etc), the bet runs on without that leg and the remaining legs are recalculated. For ante-post bets the rules differ — usually no refund unless the bookmaker is offering NRNB ("Non-Runner No Bet") on the race. Full breakdown here.
New to this? Read up on: Win-Only Betting · Handicap Races · Ante-Post Betting
Get tomorrow's pick before the off
Every selection posted before the race — the angle, the reasoning, the price. Free, no fluff.
