Well, not every day we bag a 40/1 winner — but MINDYOURHEADMIKE landed us just that. There was a significant market move from around 10:50am, and it didn’t really stop shortening up all the way through until 8pm, where he opened up in the betting ring at just 8/1. Safe to say someone had a good few quid more than the 1pt we chanced. He made every yard of it without seeing another rival, winning easily. A great moment — and they don’t happen all the time, so they’re to be savoured.
It had been a difficult day until then, which wasn’t ideal on an afternoon where we’d chanced more bets than the norm. Redorange under Ryan Moore was unlucky in the first bet of the day, a real eyecatcher in defeat and worth keeping on side. Problem being it was one you couldn’t really miss, so he won’t be much of a price the next day.
Diego Ventura ran okay on handicap debut but not enough that I’d follow in particularly. The other chanced in the Wathnan silks in the following race, Fallen Angel, disappointed considerably. She was a confident bet whose connections had repeatedly talked about stepping up to 1m2f, but they rode her far too tamely to even find out, in my opinion.
She’s one who needs to be ridden aggressively, making a real go of it off the front. She doesn’t have a turn of foot as such — just an out-and-out galloper. But instead they went a crawl, kept them stacked up on her, and a dash proceeded in the closing stages where she was inevitably swallowed. They set the race up perfectly for those in behind. She was never going to kick on like they were, and it surprised me somewhat. I expected them to get her out in front and make a go of it, and if she didn’t stay, so be it.
Counter Intuitive was heavily backed at Salisbury but didn’t get competitive. I think that race will work out a not too bad maiden and he hung fairly badly, so I’d actually give him another squeak if the price is right.
Today looks a really tough one and there were none really close to luring me in at the prices. SYNCHRONICITY was the closest I came in the 14:40 at York — a 900,000gns yearling and full sister to Ombudsman, who won last year’s renewal of the Prince Of Wales at Royal Ascot and then the Juddmonte International at York’s Ebor Festival, finishing the year rated 128. The filly has only raced the once herself but she won in good fashion that day and the form looks warm enough to suggest she could be on a similar track. The 2nd, 4th and 5th from her debut have since slapped up in their own right, all winning easily on their next starts. She’s around 10/3-4/1 and if you really fancy a bet on the day, she’s it. I just didn’t think this looked a race to be getting involved in myself.
The others of interest were WAASIL (5/2, Hamilton 18:05), BESIEGED (5/1, Newbury 17:00) and PORTCULLIS (11/10, York 17:15). To be fair, a wee Yankee on those four would probably be the play — but I won’t be advising multiples.
Waasil is a debutante for Karl Burke who comes from a family steeped in winners, and the race looks like a great bit of placement as it doesn’t look deep whatsoever. Besieged is a really nice type who I watched with interest on debut at Kempton when runner-up, and he should be thereabouts today — but again, a gnarly looking race.
Portcullis is probably the most obvious bet of the day and I expect him rife with the NAPs boards. A Frankel colt who couldn’t have caught the eye much more on debut at Newmarket last month, blowing the start, running green enough, and then streaking away with it to win by some 5+ lengths. He’s plenty short enough and goes against some could-be-anythings, though.
Have a play around on the Bet Calculator for a wee Yankee, or a Win Treble or EW Fourfold on the four for small stakes for an interest — but no advised bets from me today.
Best of luck to all getting involved. Be Lucky!
How do I follow this bet?
Best route is Oddschecker. It pulls every UK bookmaker's price into one screen so you can grab the top of the market — and crucially it shows the place terms, which vary by firm. One bookmaker might offer 11/1 paying 3 places at 1/4 odds; another might offer the same 11/1 paying 4 places at 1/5. Maximum win return vs hedged each-way return — your call which serves the bet better.
If the price has shortened since I advised it, judge it on the case in the prose. Rule of thumb: I'm generally happy down to about two-thirds of the advised price — 14/1 down to 10/1, 8/1 down to 5/1. Below that it's marginal and probably worth passing. Keep an eye on the price in the last 20 minutes too — short prices often drift back out as the off approaches, especially on outsiders. Bet with bookmakers offering Best Odds Guaranteed and you're covered either way.
What if the price has shortened by the time I get to it?
Judge it bet by bet. The cleaner the case in the prose, the more decay I'll tolerate. Rule of thumb is about two-thirds of the advised price — 14/1 down to 10/1 is still in, 9/1 down to 6/1 still fine, anything below that is marginal.
Worth knowing: short prices often drift back out as the off approaches, especially on outsiders. Keep checking in the last 20 minutes — you may get back to the advised price or close to it. And always bet with bookmakers offering Best Odds Guaranteed so you're covered if the SP comes back bigger.
Why are some bets win-only and others each-way?
Three things decide it: confidence, race shape, and the betting market.
If I think a horse has an outstanding win chance, I'll back it win-only to maximise the return — even at a bigger price, where each-way would normally be the safer call. If the win case is more speculative but the place case is strong, each-way carries the bet.
Concrete example: Almanack at Kempton, 2 July 2014. Advised at 22/1 win-only in the morning. The price shortened to 16/1 SP and he won by a short head on the line. Win-only on a confident shout at a generous price is where the real returns come from — when the case is right, you back it to win, not to hedge.
What happens if my horse is a non-runner?
If a horse is declared a non-runner before the race, your stake is returned in full on win or each-way singles.
If it's part of a multiple (accumulator, lucky-15, etc), the bet runs on without that leg and the remaining legs are recalculated. For ante-post bets the rules differ — usually no refund unless the bookmaker is offering NRNB ("Non-Runner No Bet") on the race. Full breakdown here.
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