Two bets on a cracking Saturday card. I spent a long while wanting to fire in at Ascot and just couldn’t land on a price I was happy with — so we go elsewhere. The first is a fraction away from a 2pt Win bet at 12/1, instead going 1pt Each-Way.
Yesterday was a sickener at Uttoxeter. Hill Of Tara was absolutely cruising — travelling and jumping beautifully, taking lengths out at every fence — when a loose horse carried her wide four out and that was the end of that. Charlie Deutsch pulled her up, and with forward momentum gone I think he was more looking after the horse than anything amiss. Immensely frustrating for how well she had been going.
The other on the day, Sappingirl (28/1), ran a very fair race in the bumper at Ascot, finishing 6th of 15. He doesn’t do anything in a rush and made Harry Cobden work at it for a long way, but the ability is there. Anything he achieves around two miles is a bonus — he looks one who will come into his own stepped up in trip. Firmly on the notebook.
The first of the two today is Holloway Queen at Hereford, a mare who made a great start to life with Nicky Henderson — winning her Maiden a shade cosily and then slapping up in a small-field Listed Novice Hurdle at Haydock last Christmas. Unfortunately 2025 hasn’t panned out for her — found wanting in a Grade 1 Novice Hurdle at Sandown, then pulled up when “not right” at Aintree. She reappeared at Cheltenham’s November Meeting and pulled up again, but off the back of a 225-day lay-off you have to forgive that.
The interesting bit is how she is sent straight into a Mares’ Handicap off a very generous looking OR125. In Nicky’s Stable Tour with Unibet he waxed lyrical about how this mare has been training over fences — he labelled her “excellent” and said plainly she’ll be going Novice Chasing. I think this is seen as an opportunity too good to miss, an attempt to make hay before dropping back into the Novice Handicaps.
This isn’t a route he has taken with many. The most famous is probably 2009 Desert Orchid winner Petit Robin, who won a Handicap Chase off 132 in November ’08 before winning the Desert Orchid the following year rated 161. That’s the company we’re in.
The second selection of the day is Follow Your Heart at Wolverhampton, a five-time course winner — three of those under today’s rider, three in this grade (Class 4). The latest came in March, where he won easily off a 1lb higher mark. He has been competitive in two of his three runs this autumn/winter and has been eased 3lb for the privilege, which sees him come here off a dangerous mark.
His last run is what really interested me. He ran 7th of 10 but was only beaten 2½ lengths in a fiercely competitive race for the grade, a field made up of seasoned handicappers at handy weights. This race is entirely different — he instead faces a field of unexposed rivals. That could mean he bumps into one or two who are vastly better treated, but I’d sooner take one who is tried and tested over one (of many) who might be anything.
Billy Loughnane rides Wolverhampton superbly and is operating at an impressive 20% strike rate over the last year, scoring with 40 of his 195 rides at Dunstall Park. This looks a serious chance for a local yard to strike, and I right fancy him.
Others to NoteRecent disappointment Pallas Lord goes again at Newcastle (18:00, 20/1), but I can’t be fancying him off that last tilt. This looks another race where there will be plenty of pace on and they seem determined to take him to the lead, so expect him to blow up again. If they change tack and settle him midfield — which he can do — he’d hold every chance. But if ever there was a race to do that, it was the last day.
At Ascot I liked two of Skelton’s in the Handicaps but none enough to get involved in what are fierce fields for an iffy time of year. Mount Gay Run in the Novices’ Hurdle (13:15, 9/2), who I wanted a good few points more on to chance, and Faivoir in the Premier Handicap Hurdle (15:35, 20/1). The latter was the closest I got to a bet, but on drying ground and as a thoroughly exposed 10-year-old he is almost certain to bump into one who progresses well past him.
Best of luck with your punting today,
What if the price has shortened by the time I get to it?
Judge it bet by bet. The cleaner the case in the prose, the more decay I'll tolerate. Rule of thumb is about two-thirds of the advised price — 14/1 down to 10/1 is still in, 9/1 down to 6/1 still fine, anything below that is marginal.
Worth knowing: short prices often drift back out as the off approaches, especially on outsiders. Keep checking in the last 20 minutes — you may get back to the advised price or close to it. And always bet with bookmakers offering Best Odds Guaranteed so you're covered if the SP comes back bigger.
Why are some bets win-only and others each-way?
Three things decide it: confidence, race shape, and the betting market.
If I think a horse has an outstanding win chance, I'll back it win-only to maximise the return — even at a bigger price, where each-way would normally be the safer call. If the win case is more speculative but the place case is strong, each-way carries the bet.
Concrete example: Almanack at Kempton, 2 July 2014. Advised at 22/1 win-only in the morning. The price shortened to 16/1 SP and he won by a short head on the line. Win-only on a confident shout at a generous price is where the real returns come from — when the case is right, you back it to win, not to hedge.
What happens if my horse is a non-runner?
If a horse is declared a non-runner before the race, your stake is returned in full on win or each-way singles.
If it's part of a multiple (accumulator, lucky-15, etc), the bet runs on without that leg and the remaining legs are recalculated. For ante-post bets the rules differ — usually no refund unless the bookmaker is offering NRNB ("Non-Runner No Bet") on the race. Full breakdown here.
Why no advised bet some days?
Because there isn't one. The cards don't always offer value, and the worst thing a tipster can do is force a selection just to fill a slot.
A "No Bet" day is the system working — it's the same discipline that produces the winners on the days the bets are right. Better to sit out a card cleanly than to bleed the bank on filler. The best days are usually the ones I've been patient before.
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