Taking an easier month of it on the betting front, hence posts have been few and far between. One goes today who was extremely impressive when I was on course at Ascot recently and, going again today, there’s a lot to like about his chances.
Whilst giving the head a rest from the betting, I have been quietly squirrelling into creating a ratings system. I’ve historically turned my nose up at such things, but with the edge getting harder and harder to find, I’m not afraid to broaden horizons. Early days, but recent results suggest there are legs in it. There’s one massive outlier in the ratings against today’s market, where the ratings put Mo Of Cairo leaps clear in the 17:20 at Doncaster and tissue him as a 7/2 fav, whilst the betting has him amongst the outsiders as a 14/1 shot at Bet365. The model has his chances at 22.8%. A fair run there will put great confidence into them.
Prominent, weakened inside final furlong
Given a mountain to climb last time out, but Jack Dace timed it perfectly on MAELSTROM to deliver him in the nick of time at Ascot. He is lightly enough raced and went into that just 1lb higher than the mark he completed a hat-trick from last year and had Jack Dace’s useful 5lb claim to add to it, so he was fairly easy to make a case for as 20/1 shots go. With how that race started for him (he was fairly badly hampered in the opening stages) and how he ate up ground late, it’s fair to say he could have a good bit more in hand than the 3lb rise the handicapper hit him with.
Having completed a succession of wins this time last year, he looks a great bet to repeat that feat and notch another hat-trick. Jack Dace retains the ride with his 5lb claim and this is actually a touch easier in grade, going from a 0-100 to a 0-90. A fair run that last day at Ascot would have made him of real interest here, but the manner in which he won that made him a must-bet for me next time out.
Best of luck to all getting involved today.
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Get your Ledger£29.99 a year · cancel any timeHow do I follow this bet?
Best route is Oddschecker. It pulls every UK bookmaker's price into one screen so you can grab the top of the market — and crucially it shows the place terms, which vary by firm. One bookmaker might offer 11/1 paying 3 places at 1/4 odds; another might offer the same 11/1 paying 4 places at 1/5. Maximum win return vs hedged each-way return — your call which serves the bet better.
If the price has shortened since I advised it, judge it on the case in the prose. Rule of thumb: I'm generally happy down to about two-thirds of the advised price — 14/1 down to 10/1, 8/1 down to 5/1. Below that it's marginal and probably worth passing. Keep an eye on the price in the last 20 minutes too — short prices often drift back out as the off approaches, especially on outsiders. Bet with bookmakers offering Best Odds Guaranteed and you're covered either way.
What if the price has shortened by the time I get to it?
Judge it bet by bet. The cleaner the case in the prose, the more decay I'll tolerate. Rule of thumb is about two-thirds of the advised price — 14/1 down to 10/1 is still in, 9/1 down to 6/1 still fine, anything below that is marginal.
Worth knowing: short prices often drift back out as the off approaches, especially on outsiders. Keep checking in the last 20 minutes — you may get back to the advised price or close to it. And always bet with bookmakers offering Best Odds Guaranteed so you're covered if the SP comes back bigger.
Why are some bets win-only and others each-way?
Three things decide it: confidence, race shape, and the betting market.
If I think a horse has an outstanding win chance, I'll back it win-only to maximise the return — even at a bigger price, where each-way would normally be the safer call. If the win case is more speculative but the place case is strong, each-way carries the bet.
Concrete example: Almanack at Kempton, 2 July 2014. Advised at 22/1 win-only in the morning. The price shortened to 16/1 SP and he won by a short head on the line. Win-only on a confident shout at a generous price is where the real returns come from — when the case is right, you back it to win, not to hedge.
What happens if my horse is a non-runner?
If a horse is declared a non-runner before the race, your stake is returned in full on win or each-way singles.
If it's part of a multiple (accumulator, lucky-15, etc), the bet runs on without that leg and the remaining legs are recalculated. For ante-post bets the rules differ — usually no refund unless the bookmaker is offering NRNB ("Non-Runner No Bet") on the race. Full breakdown here.
New to this? Read up on: Handicap Races · Ante-Post Betting · Best Odds Guaranteed
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