A new month and we see January behind with a healthy profit of +37.82pts on the Profit & Loss Report. For what is always a tricky time of year, I’m very happy with that. Added to the +17.60pts from December, we’re sitting on a nice pot of +55.42pts.
I let yesterday run as I wasn’t sweet enough about any of them, but I was left kicking myself when the biggest price of those I’d looked more than once at obliged at 20/1. Moonverrin (Leopardstown 16:27) caught the eye in a deep enough race, on little more than being a very rare big runner in a Bumper for a yard who seldom have success in such events.
The form hadn’t looked like amounting to anything to overly shout about, and the Leopardstown Bumper looked warm enough yesterday, so I let them go without an interest. Moonverrin had the chance to win it on all merit, but had looked like handing the race to Royal Hillsbrough, only for the rider to think he’d gone past the winning post 50 yards early.
Moonverrin was still motoring under a strong Finian Maguire, and I was duly spitting feathers. This race produced the Champion Bumper at the festival last year, so this is likely a result to pay attention to, in both Moonverrin and Royal Hillsbrough.
Onto today…
Three selections, none bombproof but all worth their chance respectively. The first up is a minimum bet who is only worth the tickle on account of the huge price, but that one could go either way.
The other one at Kempton is likely my bet of the day, with three runs at Kempton all coming as a runner-up, and I’ve said before about the rules with Kempton and course form.
Tyson @ 66/1
Tyson @ 66/1½pt EW | Kempton 14:35
Result: unplaced – 9/10 -1pt | Always behind, tailed off (SP 50/1)
Island Run @ 22/1
Island Run @ 22/11pt EW | Kempton 15:42
Result: unplaced – 8/11 -2pt | In touch with leaders, prominent 3 out, weakened home turn (SP 10/1)
Hobb’s Delight @ 12/1
Hobb’s Delight @ 12/11pt EW | Southwell 16:27
Result: unplaced | PU/7 -2pt | Prominent, weakened quickly after 3 out, pulled up before 2 out (SP 11/2)
First up goes Tyson for Dank Skelton, at an admittedly wild price but is worth chancing for a minimum bet. He is having just his second start for Skelton, who’s yard is in great form, and he is potentially running off a lenient mark if he can run to a couple of pieces of form from his time in Ireland.
The race doesn’t look the deepest and the yard go mob handed in it likely on account of that, so off bottom weight and the in here who could be anything, it’s a minor nibble worth having.
One who hasn’t won since 2023 but deserves a chance, Island Run returns to Kempton where he has form figures reading 2222, and he goes here off a mark of 104, the lowest mark he ran off in them four runner-up’s.
Kempton course form is an unbelievable pointer, especially so if you can find one well weighted, and I fancy this lightly-raced nine-year-old to be just that. He does need a bit of a leap of faith, but he almost always gives his running.
Last up is another with a noteable level of course form and a generous looking mark to go with it, in Hobb’s Delight at Southwell for the in-form Neil Mulholland yard.
With course and distance figures of 121 and 4lbs lower than the mark of 90 he won that race off, he looks well-handicapped already. Add to that he gets a useful 3lb claim from Bradley Harris and he is looking potentially chucked in.
Neil Mulholland is an extremely shrewd operator, who knows how to both handicap and place his runners, and they don’t send too many here which suggests to me they tend to go trying. One winner and three places from the six they sent here last year.
Best of luck with your punting today,
