The poor patch continued with Kindly Queen at Newbury yesterday, who looked out of her depth in the grade. It was her poorest run yet — she was still a bit keen early doors, albeit less so, and didn’t get her own way up front — but she dropped away tamely and it was a disappointing effort. More frustrating were the two winners in the others noted, with Return To Unit drifting out to 13/2 and bolting in, and Kom Tu Voudras also drifting in the betting, out to 10/3, and winning cosily. It looked a tough day, and one I really didn’t fancy throwing multiple darts at. Times like this happen, and a level head is required.
Plenty around today, and far easier to nail my colours to the mast, too. Three taken for a bet from five of serious interest. Two debutants, which is always taking a chance, but both come from stables prolific with newcomers and from families with proven track records — which makes them educated punts, especially the Owen Burrows one, who is a monstrous price all considered.
Raced in second, in touch with leaders after 2f, weakened over 1f out
Dwelt start, soon towards rear, waiting for room from under 3f out, switched left and headway over 1f out, challenging but ran green final furlong, ridden and ran on to lead final strides
Midfield, rapid headway inside final furlong, went third inside final 110yds, nearest finish, eyecatcher
FANTASY MASTER goes first, who was a non-runner when up as a selection at the back end of May at Yarmouth, on account of the ground coming up quick. Good-to-soft at Sandown today should be ideal, and he has a couple of pieces of course form off higher marks than he runs off today, which suggests the minimum 5f trip (he was due to run over 6f at Yarmouth) isn’t an issue. He is drawn widest, which isn’t beneficial, but in a field this size it shouldn’t be an excuse not to get a handy position, and the uphill climb on this sprint track should allow his stamina to come to the fore. 2pt Win at 10/1 generally available.
Next up is the first of the debutants in GYMBAAZY for Owen Burrows. A full-brother to Aidan O’Brien’s 2024 winning debutant Bomberg, and from a yard who have a serious knack for readying one first-time-out, he looks wildly overpriced here. Three of the yard’s last four newcomers at Sandown have won, adding to their tally of Flat debutants reading 16/68 for a 23.5% strike and a profit of +£39.20 to a level £1 stake. I don’t like playing smaller fields each-way paying only two places, and I’d have braved taking on the odds-on jolly of Andrew Balding’s (the yard are only 1/28 with newcomers this year), but I’m wary of Sean Woods’ runner Encounter, who ran well on debut behind Notable Dream — a Bayside Boy colt we had as a watching brief on debut who looks destined for Royal Ascot. ½pt Each-Way at 33/1 (General, paying 2 places).
Last up is another Bayside Boy colt on debut in TREAN for Paddy Twomey, who are absolutely prolific at readying newcomers and operate at a consistent 20%+ strike rate with them across the board. They have already seen this 2yo’s half-sister win on debut this year — a Dark Angel filly named Dark Lucinda who slapped up in a 3yo maiden — and with everything we know about these precocious Bayside Boy newcomers, you can expect him to be a fair sight better. 2pt Win at 11/4 (Bet365), and being punted.
Others to note: Lord Capulet (9/2, Chester 13:30) and Wo Wo Never (11/1, Gowran Park 16:15)
Good luck to all getting involved. Be Lucky!
Bet logs, spreadsheets and course cheatsheets — built the same honest way as the tips.
Visit the Shop →What if the price has shortened by the time I get to it?
Judge it bet by bet. The cleaner the case in the prose, the more decay I'll tolerate. Rule of thumb is about two-thirds of the advised price — 14/1 down to 10/1 is still in, 9/1 down to 6/1 still fine, anything below that is marginal.
Worth knowing: short prices often drift back out as the off approaches, especially on outsiders. Keep checking in the last 20 minutes — you may get back to the advised price or close to it. And always bet with bookmakers offering Best Odds Guaranteed so you're covered if the SP comes back bigger.
Why are some bets win-only and others each-way?
Three things decide it: confidence, race shape, and the betting market.
If I think a horse has an outstanding win chance, I'll back it win-only to maximise the return — even at a bigger price, where each-way would normally be the safer call. If the win case is more speculative but the place case is strong, each-way carries the bet.
Concrete example: Almanack at Kempton, 2 July 2014. Advised at 22/1 win-only in the morning. The price shortened to 16/1 SP and he won by a short head on the line. Win-only on a confident shout at a generous price is where the real returns come from — when the case is right, you back it to win, not to hedge.
What happens if my horse is a non-runner?
If a horse is declared a non-runner before the race, your stake is returned in full on win or each-way singles.
If it's part of a multiple (accumulator, lucky-15, etc), the bet runs on without that leg and the remaining legs are recalculated. For ante-post bets the rules differ — usually no refund unless the bookmaker is offering NRNB ("Non-Runner No Bet") on the race. Full breakdown here.
Why no advised bet some days?
Because there isn't one. The cards don't always offer value, and the worst thing a tipster can do is force a selection just to fill a slot.
A "No Bet" day is the system working — it's the same discipline that produces the winners on the days the bets are right. Better to sit out a card cleanly than to bleed the bank on filler. The best days are usually the ones I've been patient before.
New to this? Read up on: Speed Figures · Each-Way Betting · Win-Only Betting
Get tomorrow's pick before the off
Every selection posted before the race — the angle, the reasoning, the price. Free, no fluff.
