I was after letting today run, with a few days spent reflecting back over where the betting has been, and potentially where it has been going amiss, but there is one tonight who I just can’t let go at the price, which looks miles away to me. I’m not saying he is a live chance, but he is certainly a price you can’t ignore, with All-Weather form to his name and now running over a trip which his pedigree suggests he should favour, and it’s a race where only three of the eight have recorded a win at the grade, suggesting it’s not the deepest.
As for the betting, truth is I’m happy with how most have been bet, and I wouldn’t have done much there differently. I’ve attacked the races in the same way I always have, and for whatever reason it just isn’t paying off. The “Others To Note” section has produced a few, who are those I decide against for any number of reasons, and that’s probably where the deciding cut has been, and what has affected the swing in P/L. I’ve maybe been a bit too critical in places, and looked too deep until I’ve found a reason against, rather than just going with. Then there is the obvious one from the weekend, where Saxon Grace and Calendar Girl would’ve been selections but for the website issues long into the night before, which is just a cruel turn of luck.
I have to say again, a massive thank you to everyone who has dropped messages and kept following the posts over the last few months. These periods are massive tests of mentality and can break many, both on my side and yours. The fact the comments have been of positivity and encouragement, rather than dogs abuse, has been refreshing, and I’m very grateful for that. Obviously a lot of time goes in, but people bet their hard earned on these and when it goes astray, it’s a tough gig. I’ve no doubt there have been times where my name has been cursed, but trust me, there’s nobody harder on myself than me.
In rear, headway but raced wide from over 5f out, in touch with leaders over 3f out, weakened from over 2f out
So, the bet… No better way to ride a bad wave than to take a wild punt on a 100/1 shot (Bet365), right? It’s not such a wild punt, though it obviously comes with enough risk attached, as anything at this price does, but there is method in the madness. For context, this Ulysses gelding has been sent off in the top two in the betting in seven of his nine All-Weather runs, running figures of 821232358. Those figures have come over the 1m and 1m2f trips, but his sire’s progeny show a distinct preference for further. He is nudged up to a Class 5 here, which is his first test at the grade, but his lowly mark sees him go off a lowly weight under George Wood (who is 1/1 for the yard).
Ulysses progeny on the All-Weather — by trip
| Trip | Runs | Wins | Win% | Places | Place% | P/L (SP) | A/E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Up to 1m3.5f | 696 | 65 | 9.34% | 200 | 28.74% | -310.70 | 0.69 |
| 1m4f and further | 247 | 35 | 14.17% | 81 | 32.79% | -22.14 | 0.98 |
All-Weather runs only. P/L to 1pt level stakes at SP.
He has been chopping hands a few times and now makes his stable debut for Luke Dace, a trainer who had a very quiet nine-year period between 2015 and 2024, but he has been nudging winners over 2025 and has already surpassed last year’s tally this year from his string of thirteen horses. Despite showing obvious signs of getting into the swing of things again, his runners are being vastly overlooked in the betting. The race doesn’t look the deepest, although there are a few far less exposed than he, but at huge odds, All-Weather form to his name and from a mark lower than he has twice placed from, he doesn’t even need to improve for the up in trip, he just needs to run to his previous level to be competitive.
A quick note on the email front… I’m doing my best to get this back rolling, but it isn’t proving straightforward. There has been a big crackdown on betting related content with these providers, so I’ve a good few hoops to jump through, which I’m in the process of. I’m confident of getting them back soon enough, though they may be in a more basic concept than previous. If you previously subscribed to emails, you’ll be carried over to the new list automatically.
Best of luck all getting involved today.
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Get your Ledger£29.99 a year · cancel any timeHow do I follow this bet?
Best route is Oddschecker. It pulls every UK bookmaker's price into one screen so you can grab the top of the market — and crucially it shows the place terms, which vary by firm. One bookmaker might offer 11/1 paying 3 places at 1/4 odds; another might offer the same 11/1 paying 4 places at 1/5. Maximum win return vs hedged each-way return — your call which serves the bet better.
If the price has shortened since I advised it, judge it on the case in the prose. Rule of thumb: I'm generally happy down to about two-thirds of the advised price — 14/1 down to 10/1, 8/1 down to 5/1. Below that it's marginal and probably worth passing. Keep an eye on the price in the last 20 minutes too — short prices often drift back out as the off approaches, especially on outsiders. Bet with bookmakers offering Best Odds Guaranteed and you're covered either way.
What if the price has shortened by the time I get to it?
Judge it bet by bet. The cleaner the case in the prose, the more decay I'll tolerate. Rule of thumb is about two-thirds of the advised price — 14/1 down to 10/1 is still in, 9/1 down to 6/1 still fine, anything below that is marginal.
Worth knowing: short prices often drift back out as the off approaches, especially on outsiders. Keep checking in the last 20 minutes — you may get back to the advised price or close to it. And always bet with bookmakers offering Best Odds Guaranteed so you're covered if the SP comes back bigger.
Why are some bets win-only and others each-way?
Three things decide it: confidence, race shape, and the betting market.
If I think a horse has an outstanding win chance, I'll back it win-only to maximise the return — even at a bigger price, where each-way would normally be the safer call. If the win case is more speculative but the place case is strong, each-way carries the bet.
Concrete example: Almanack at Kempton, 2 July 2014. Advised at 22/1 win-only in the morning. The price shortened to 16/1 SP and he won by a short head on the line. Win-only on a confident shout at a generous price is where the real returns come from — when the case is right, you back it to win, not to hedge.
What happens if my horse is a non-runner?
If a horse is declared a non-runner before the race, your stake is returned in full on win or each-way singles.
If it's part of a multiple (accumulator, lucky-15, etc), the bet runs on without that leg and the remaining legs are recalculated. For ante-post bets the rules differ — usually no refund unless the bookmaker is offering NRNB ("Non-Runner No Bet") on the race. Full breakdown here.
New to this? Read up on: Place Terms · Race Class Levels · Turf vs All-Weather
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