A few days off to freshen the head up. It’s been a hectic time of it for precious little reward this month, so on the back of Deressa getting up at Ballinrobe last week it seemed a good time for a reset. I’ve seen a few go in who would’ve been very closely looked at — Jack Channon and Ed Walker 2TOs in particular, who’ve served us so well. Hope a few of you have caught onto these for your own benefit.
Easy picking today, albeit at varying degrees of confidence. One is getting a last chance to reward us before trust issues between me and him are firmly cemented; then there’s one from the tracker who I had as a must-bet NTO but goes over a sharper trip than I’d have preferred. Both follow one at Kempton who is bet on solid pedigree in a race that lacks it. Pay attention to the stakes — I’ve bet accordingly.
Took keen hold, never better than midfield
Raced centre, disputed lead, led clearly over 1f out, soon edged right, headed and no extra final 110yds
First up is HALF A HOOF, who goes in an ordinary looking Kempton Novice Stakes. The 1st division at 17:45 looks to have some far more likely all-weather types in, but this round looks seriously lacking. By Lucky Vega, who’s progeny on the All-Weather are 14/60 (23.33% strike) with 33 hitting the frame (55%), and out of a Stravinsky mare, who’s progeny are supremely consistent on the artificial surfaces being US bred and a liking for dirt. Ollie Sangster is a trainer who is highly capable of winning these, with his runners operating at an A/E of 1.24 in All-Weather Novices, showing they are being vastly underbet. A huge price, who has some huge pointers in a race seriously lacking in them.
Next up is DIVINE LIBRA, who I had pencilled as a must-bet next time out after really catching the eye when last seen at Chester at the beginning of May over 7½f. I thought they’d keep him around 7f after that, but they have opted to drop him back to the bare 6f here at Windsor. Whilst the trip isn’t what I’d have expected, I do like the look of the race, which for a Class 2 Handicap looks significantly lacking in comparison to the usual standard for this grade. I’m not mad about the draw… The 6f trip here you’d prefer a higher draw, but it isn’t a strong enough bias to scratch one for. That said, there’s enough question marks to reduce stakes to a minimum bet.
Lastly goes AMAZONIAN DREAM, who goes up as a selection for the third time on Formdial, and is yet to earn any keep despite running into the frame on both occasions. However, he keeps dropping down the weights and now crucially drops in grade into a Class 5 Handicap for only the second time in his career and the first time since 2023, where he ran a cracking ½l 2nd to a seriously well handicapped gelding of Roger Charlton’s, who had a good 10lbs+ in hand. The booking of Oisin Murphy screams off the page here, and it looks a very winnable race. The favourite, the consistent Monsieur Patat, looks weighted to the top of his game with little wiggle room, so I’d fancy one who looks to have a good few pounds in hand over him.
Shimmering Sands (2/1, Pontefract 14:30) and Alfred Wincham (15/8, Pontefract 15:00).
Good luck to all getting involved. Be Lucky!
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Get your Ledger£5/month launch price · 14-day free trialWhat if the price has shortened by the time I get to it?
Judge it bet by bet. The cleaner the case in the prose, the more decay I'll tolerate. Rule of thumb is about two-thirds of the advised price — 14/1 down to 10/1 is still in, 9/1 down to 6/1 still fine, anything below that is marginal.
Worth knowing: short prices often drift back out as the off approaches, especially on outsiders. Keep checking in the last 20 minutes — you may get back to the advised price or close to it. And always bet with bookmakers offering Best Odds Guaranteed so you're covered if the SP comes back bigger.
Why are some bets win-only and others each-way?
Three things decide it: confidence, race shape, and the betting market.
If I think a horse has an outstanding win chance, I'll back it win-only to maximise the return — even at a bigger price, where each-way would normally be the safer call. If the win case is more speculative but the place case is strong, each-way carries the bet.
Concrete example: Almanack at Kempton, 2 July 2014. Advised at 22/1 win-only in the morning. The price shortened to 16/1 SP and he won by a short head on the line. Win-only on a confident shout at a generous price is where the real returns come from — when the case is right, you back it to win, not to hedge.
What happens if my horse is a non-runner?
If a horse is declared a non-runner before the race, your stake is returned in full on win or each-way singles.
If it's part of a multiple (accumulator, lucky-15, etc), the bet runs on without that leg and the remaining legs are recalculated. For ante-post bets the rules differ — usually no refund unless the bookmaker is offering NRNB ("Non-Runner No Bet") on the race. Full breakdown here.
Why no advised bet some days?
Because there isn't one. The cards don't always offer value, and the worst thing a tipster can do is force a selection just to fill a slot.
A "No Bet" day is the system working — it's the same discipline that produces the winners on the days the bets are right. Better to sit out a card cleanly than to bleed the bank on filler. The best days are usually the ones I've been patient before.
New to this? Read up on: Win-Only Betting · Handicap Races · Ante-Post Betting
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