Another day, another course. A flurry of interest on a decent Monday – Galway looks a very decent watch and a really nice Ayr card there too, plus the usual Monday fare. A good day of it, where I could’ve played plenty.
A horrible run there on Saturday from Hout Bay, who was a very rare Max Bet and finished stone last of six, running no race. It didn’t look a deep race there, and the winner being a newcomer hailing from a dam whose progeny were 0/17 going into it suggests it wasn’t. The Newmarket run was huge and the form boosted out of it. I think that is a run to forgive, as it appeared too bad to be true, so a vast improvement on that next time shouldn’t come as a surprise.
Started quickly, led, going best over 2f out, reduced lead over 1f out, headed but rallied inside final furlong, lost second and no extra final 110yds
Two today, one being Carmel Valley who should’ve won last time out, but I think Joanna Mason thought she had the race won, only to get done in the final stages by one coming from the clouds on her blind side. They go right up in grade today, which initially put me off, but off bottom weight and with Jason Hart booked, the pair have a record here reading 8/30 (26%), and 3/6 of those were when stepping up in class.
The latter, Lanespark, is following the Poet’s Word in Bumpers angle, and there is pretty much every possible box ticked. His full-brother, Poet’s Whisper, was a very impressive debutant at Kelso earlier this year for Nicky Richards. He goes here for Andrew Slattery, who is 8/28 (28.5%) in Bumpers over the last year, including Gomez Addams who he won this race with last year, who did so under today’s rider Adam Ryan, who is 15/68 (22%) in Bumpers (plus a further 20 in the frame). Over the last two years they have paired up in 35 of these, winning 10 and placing in 20. If this one can’t go close, I don’t know what will.
Runninsonofagun (6/4, Ayr 15:45), Filly Eilish (22/1, Southwell 16:00), Brazilian Blitz (50/1, Southwell 16:30), Arouet (5/1, Galway 17:10) and Our Boy Bailey and Trean (5/1 and 13/2, Galway 18:10).
Today’s Stat Attack board is up as well – the trainers with the strongest records at today’s tracks, and the runners they send out. Nothing to do with the Dial and it never goes near the P/L, but worth a look.
Good luck all.
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Get your Ledger£5/month launch price · 14-day free trialWhat if the price has shortened by the time I get to it?
Judge it bet by bet. The cleaner the case in the prose, the more decay I'll tolerate. Rule of thumb is about two-thirds of the advised price — 14/1 down to 10/1 is still in, 9/1 down to 6/1 still fine, anything below that is marginal.
Worth knowing: short prices often drift back out as the off approaches, especially on outsiders. Keep checking in the last 20 minutes — you may get back to the advised price or close to it. And always bet with bookmakers offering Best Odds Guaranteed so you're covered if the SP comes back bigger.
Why are some bets win-only and others each-way?
Three things decide it: confidence, race shape, and the betting market.
If I think a horse has an outstanding win chance, I'll back it win-only to maximise the return — even at a bigger price, where each-way would normally be the safer call. If the win case is more speculative but the place case is strong, each-way carries the bet.
Concrete example: Almanack at Kempton, 2 July 2014. Advised at 22/1 win-only in the morning. The price shortened to 16/1 SP and he won by a short head on the line. Win-only on a confident shout at a generous price is where the real returns come from — when the case is right, you back it to win, not to hedge.
What happens if my horse is a non-runner?
If a horse is declared a non-runner before the race, your stake is returned in full on win or each-way singles.
If it's part of a multiple (accumulator, lucky-15, etc), the bet runs on without that leg and the remaining legs are recalculated. For ante-post bets the rules differ — usually no refund unless the bookmaker is offering NRNB ("Non-Runner No Bet") on the race. Full breakdown here.
Why no advised bet some days?
Because there isn't one. The cards don't always offer value, and the worst thing a tipster can do is force a selection just to fill a slot.
A "No Bet" day is the system working — it's the same discipline that produces the winners on the days the bets are right. Better to sit out a card cleanly than to bleed the bank on filler. The best days are usually the ones I've been patient before.
New to this? Read up on: Each-Way Betting · Win-Only Betting · Ante-Post Betting
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